Macro analysis of the global oil markets to distill the evolving risks and opportunities for energy industry stakeholders and wealth managers.
Case studies, research and analysis tailored to meet government policy as well as business needs. Specializing in market trends, commodity pricing, deregulation.
Connecting the dots between fundamentals, economics, financial markets, regulatory and policy changes, demographics, geopolitics and more.
Crude resumes climb early Tue as Israel bombards Tehran - June 17, 2025
Crude spike may unwind if Trump defuses Israel-Iran tensions - June 13, 2025
In this week’s Oil Viewsletter:
Spotlight: Why crude has not latched on to the “TACO trade” that has buoyed other risk assets over the past month.
Mildly bearish near-term and second-half April - April 2, 2025
After weighing the factors supporting and weighing on crude, we concluded:
US' tough new Russia oil sanctions may have a short shelf life - Jan. 12, 2025
The Biden administration took oil market players by surprise on Friday by announcing the most expansive sanctions yet against Russia’s oil sector.
We suspect it was not only the oil market; the US’ European Union allies across the pond may have also been caught unawares – we couldn’t find a single reaction from any of the region’s leaders! The UK, for what it is worth, joined the US, simultaneously announcing sanctions against Gazpromneft and Surgutneftegas,
It was curious to see Biden fire the bazooka just 10 days before handing over charge to Donald Trump, who is clearly going to have a vastly different approach to resolving the Ukraine war.
What does the upcoming change of guard in the US say for the durability of the latest round of sanctions and crude’s 4% spike on Friday? Our succinct insights in this report.
OIL IN 2025: Softer crude prices but not because of oversupply - Dec. 27, 2024
Benchmark Brent crude prices averaged just under $80/barrel in 2024, about 2.7% lower versus last year.
We expect the average to dip into the $70-75/barrel band in 2025, but not because of a sizeable oversupply in the market, let alone a “glut”.
A sombre economic outlook for 2025, bolstered by China’s uphill battle to jump-start growth and amplified by expectations of a fresh round of trade wars under Trump 2.0, has shaped a bearish narrative around oil demand.
But we would caution against leaning too much into the gloom-and-doom scenario.
Crude is more likely to come under pressure from an evaporating geopolitical risk premium and worries over economic stability than any severe economic downturns or recessions.
Oil demand could remain relatively resilient, helped by softer prices, leading to a largely balanced market, especially with OPEC+ remaining extra cautious and conservative in bringing back the barrels it has locked away.
What challenges our baseline views? We also bring you the contrarian perspective and wildcards!
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