Macro analysis of the global oil markets to distill the evolving risks and opportunities for energy industry stakeholders and wealth managers.
Case studies, research and analysis tailored to meet government policy as well as business needs. Specializing in market trends, commodity pricing, deregulation.
Connecting the dots between fundamentals, economics, financial markets, regulatory and policy changes, demographics, geopolitics and more.
Brent searches for foothold near $106 after sharp cooldown - March 20, 2026
Crude clings to Iran risk premium as talks set to drag on - Feb. 27, 2026
In this week’s Oil Viewsletter, we cut through the noise on US-Iran tensions and lay out what actually matters for oil markets:
Bottom line: geopolitics — not supply-demand balances — is setting the tape, and volatility is likely to persist while negotiations stretch into the coming weeks.
Mar 2026: Mildly bullish near-term, neutral first-half Mar - Feb. 20, 2026
After weighing the balance of Iran risks, our latest Bulls & Bears report concludes:
No way out of a blockaded strait, keeping oil on the boil - March 20, 2026
Crude spent the week in a tug of war — pulled between tight physical fundamentals and a concerted push by Washington and Jerusalem to cool the rally. The rhetoric briefly steadied nerves, but the market cannot be hoodwinked for long; it inevitably hones back in on the physical barrel — and those remain in short supply.
In this note, we cut through the noise and crunch the numbers on how much oil is actually making its way out of the Middle East, what the realistic upside looks like, and where the downside risks still lie. We then examine the most feasible pathways for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as the war grinds on — and why none offer a quick fix.
OIL IN 2026: Surplus on paper, wildcards in the real world - Dec. 29, 2025
Here we are at the end of 2025, a year of softer fundamentals punctuated by sharp, geopolitically driven lurches.
2026 is shaping up as a “surplus year” -- but not a sleepy one. The balance sheet looks loose; the risk map doesn’t.
Our special report sets out why we see Brent averaging $60-64/barrel, and where the real wildcards sit: Ukraine’s endgame (and what any sanctions unwind would actuallychange), a US-Venezuela standoff that could still escalate, and a Middle East where flashpoints are shifting rather than fading.
We also focus on market plumbing that can move prices even when fundamentals say “rangebound”:
If you’re tracking what could break the range -- up or down -- this is the framework we’re using.
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