Macro analysis of the global oil markets to distill the evolving risks and opportunities for energy industry stakeholders and wealth managers.
Case studies, research and analysis tailored to meet government policy as well as business needs. Specializing in market trends, commodity pricing, deregulation.
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Renewed Russia supply worries prompt uptick in crude - Nov. 7, 2025
Crude holds a fragile balance as risk premium confronts oversupply - Nov. 7, 2025
Crude is caught in a tug-of-war between Russia-related supply disruption fears and a stubborn oversupply narrative -- though the “glut” camp has grown noticeably quieter.
Brent couldn’t break above $66 and has gradually drifted lower from the October 23 post-sanctions high of $65.99. But it is not sliding towards $60, either. Whether the West’s latest measures – especially the US’ blanket ban on Rosneft and Lukoil – prove a game-changer or merely spawn new workarounds remains uncertain.
In the meantime, Chinese and Indian refiners have trimmed Russian crude purchases and tapped more Middle East barrels, tightening Brent/Dubai and prompting deeper discounts on Russian crude.
Persistent Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries and ports continue to hobble Russian product exports, one of several forces propelling diesel cracks to two-year highs.
Nov 2025: Mildly bearish near-term, mildly bearish second-half Nov - Oct. 31, 2025
Our reading of market sentiment after weighing all the bullish and bearish factors:
Rosneft, Lukoil sanctions: Market nervous, not panicked - Oct. 23, 2025
Brent is up ~$3/bbl (~5%) on sweeping US sanctions that now cover Russia’s last major oil exporters, but price action remains measured.
We see Trump leveraging sanctions to push de-escalation, while Chinese/Indian refiners move into precautionary mode and term buyers assess force-majeure options.
Near term, expect firmer backwardation, stronger Middle East grades, and diesel cracks leading the products complex.
OIL IN 2025: Softer crude prices but not because of oversupply - Dec. 27, 2024
Benchmark Brent crude prices averaged just under $80/barrel in 2024, about 2.7% lower versus last year.
We expect the average to dip into the $70-75/barrel band in 2025, but not because of a sizeable oversupply in the market, let alone a “glut”.
A sombre economic outlook for 2025, bolstered by China’s uphill battle to jump-start growth and amplified by expectations of a fresh round of trade wars under Trump 2.0, has shaped a bearish narrative around oil demand.
But we would caution against leaning too much into the gloom-and-doom scenario.
Crude is more likely to come under pressure from an evaporating geopolitical risk premium and worries over economic stability than any severe economic downturns or recessions.
Oil demand could remain relatively resilient, helped by softer prices, leading to a largely balanced market, especially with OPEC+ remaining extra cautious and conservative in bringing back the barrels it has locked away.
What challenges our baseline views? We also bring you the contrarian perspective and wildcards!
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