Macro analysis of the global oil markets to distill the evolving risks and opportunities for energy industry stakeholders and wealth managers.
Case studies, research and analysis tailored to meet government policy as well as business needs. Specializing in market trends, commodity pricing, deregulation.
Connecting the dots between fundamentals, economics, financial markets, regulatory and policy changes, demographics, geopolitics and more.
Crude consolidates early Wed as Russia supply worries linger - Sept. 17, 2025
Russia sanctions risk buoys crude against fears of oversupply - Sept. 12, 2025
Aug 2025: Mildly bullish near-term, Moderately bullish H1 Sep - Aug. 22, 2025
Our latest crude price outlook:
Trump's Iran attack jolts markets but worst-case scenarios capped - June 22, 2025
Mideast tensions surged after the US hit Iran’s three main nuclear sites in a pre-dawn strike Sunday, marking a sharp reversal from President Trump’s earlier two-week diplomatic window.
Brent could briefly jump above $80/bbl at Monday’s open, but a quick pullback is likely as markets reassess the escalation risk.
Despite fiery rhetoric, Iran’s actual response appears measured. We do not expect a near-term blockade of Hormuz or strikes on Gulf producers’ oil assets, keeping worst-case risks contained.
Trump’s “one-and-done” signal and Tehran’s continued openness to talks raise the odds of resumed nuclear negotiations — potentially easing the $12–14/bbl risk premium, though volatility will stay elevated.
OIL IN 2025: Softer crude prices but not because of oversupply - Dec. 27, 2024
Benchmark Brent crude prices averaged just under $80/barrel in 2024, about 2.7% lower versus last year.
We expect the average to dip into the $70-75/barrel band in 2025, but not because of a sizeable oversupply in the market, let alone a “glut”.
A sombre economic outlook for 2025, bolstered by China’s uphill battle to jump-start growth and amplified by expectations of a fresh round of trade wars under Trump 2.0, has shaped a bearish narrative around oil demand.
But we would caution against leaning too much into the gloom-and-doom scenario.
Crude is more likely to come under pressure from an evaporating geopolitical risk premium and worries over economic stability than any severe economic downturns or recessions.
Oil demand could remain relatively resilient, helped by softer prices, leading to a largely balanced market, especially with OPEC+ remaining extra cautious and conservative in bringing back the barrels it has locked away.
What challenges our baseline views? We also bring you the contrarian perspective and wildcards!
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